After the absolute disaster that was last seasons predictions, we aren't confident at all in how the AL East will finish this time around. Well, with one exception. We are as sure as we can be that the Orioles will finish in 5th place. But we wouldn't be surprised if the other four teams finished in any order. Nor would it be a shock to us if all four of Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto made the playoffs - all four would have last year if the 2021 season had the expanded playoffs which begin this year.
But our guess for how the AL East will finish this year is -
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Let's start with Toronto. They lost the reigning Cy Young winner in Robbie Ray to free agency but their rotation is arguably better going into this season than when they finished in 2021. Kevin Gausman was 6th the Cy Young voting last year and Yusei Kikuchi could be a real surprise package if their pitching coaches work their magic like they did with Ray.
They were able to vastly improve their defence by trading for Matt Chapman - something that will greatly help Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin Ryu who are groundball pitchers - without having to give up highly rated prospect Jordan Groshans. Chapman's offensive upgrade at third base should go some way to replace the 45 home runs they lost when Marcus Semien signed with Texas. And that's before even mentioning the 2nd place finisher in MVP voting last year, Vladdy Jr.
The Rays are the reigning AL East champions and finished the season 8 games ahead of their closest challenger. They go into 2022 with the majority of their roster in tact, but will be without Tyler Glasnow who is likely out for the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
But Glasnow's absence leaves the door open for youngsters Shane Baz and Luis Patino, who we think both have the potential to have outstanding careers. Tampa Bay always seem to impress with how much they can achieve with relatively few resources. We aren't about to bet against them having yet another excellent season.
Yankee's fans look set to have another season of watching home runs fly out of The Stadium and can look forward to a full season of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo joining Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the Bronx. They also welcome back a hopefully fully healthy Luis Severino after he managed to pitch just 18 innings since 2018.
We aren't sure whether Josh Donaldson will have the impact that the Yankees hope he will, nor that DJ Lemahieu and Gleyber Torres will bounce back after putting up relatively low numbers last season. But with Gerrit Cole leading the rotation and the power their line-up has, we wouldn't be shocked at all if they take first place.
The Boston Red Sox might just have the best offensive infield in the American League after they added free agent shortstop Trevor Story to play alongside Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Bobby Dalbec. JD Martinez led the league in doubles last season and we can see him comfortably hitting 35+ home runs in 2022.
But, for us, their rotation has too many question marks. Chris Sale, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi would make an impressive top of almost any rotation, but the health of Sale and Paxton are major concerns. If - and it's a big if - they can each start every 5th day, then the Red Sox have a great chance of winning the AL. However, if they can't, then their likely replacements of Michael Wacha and Rich Hill don't instil a huge amount of confidence.
Finally, the Baltimore Orioles. We're sorry, Baltimore. But we're picking you to finish last in the AL East. By some margin. Again. There is some really interesting talent on this team though; Cedric Mullins had an outstanding 30-30 season in 2021 and we are massive Trey Mancini fans and hope that he has a big year.
There's - perhaps unsurprisingly given their number of recent high draft picks - a ton of young talent in the organisation. Ryan Mountcastle hit 33 HR in his first full season, Adley Rutschman & Grayson Rodriguez are both consistently in the top 10 of best prospects lists and DL Hall had a ridiculous strike out percentage of 43.8% in AA last season.
But we fear that their rotation when John Means isn't starting is going to be a big problem this season, and the bottom half of their line-up looks better suited to AAA Norfolk than the AL East.
However, the future is bright, Orioles fans. 2022 might not be your year, but 2024 very well could be.
Who do you think will win the AL East? Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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