2020 record - 30-28, 2nd place in NL Central
Key Addition - Nolan Arenado
There is only one possible answer here and that's Nolan Arenado.
Other than trading for Arenado, the Cardinals have had a pretty quiet winter. Re-signing fan favourites Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright on one year deals are excellent business for them though. Both in terms of the leadership they bring and their low risk, high reward nature. But neither will likely come close to being as impactful as Arenado will be.
Let's have a quick look at his career so far before we focus on the trade itself.
Over 8 seasons with Colorado, Arenado has hit .293, 235 home runs with a 38.9 WAR. He has won a gold glove in every single one of those 8 seasons plus 4 platinum gloves for being the best defensive player in the league. He's a 5 time All-Star and had received MVP votes 5 times.
But it's when you dig a little deeper that you truly realise just how special Nolan Arenado is as a hitter. He has led the NL in home runs three times so it's not surprising that he hits a home run in 5.2% of his plate appearances, but it's his ability not to strike out which makes him stand out. Usually when a player hits a ton of home runs, they sacrifice discipline in order to do it. But not Arenado. His strike out percentage is significantly below the Major League average.
There will be some who no doubt attribute a lot of his numbers to the Coors Field effect, and sure, his numbers while playing in Colorado are incredible and better than his road numbers. But his away from home numbers are still mightily impressive; 99 home runs, 114 doubles and a .263 average in 536 away games are stats that just about anyone would be very happy with.
So what did the Cardinals have to give up in order to acquire arguably the best third baseman in the game? Austin Gomber (104 IP since 2018) and 4 mid-level prospects of which only 1 has played at AA or higher.
Might some of those prospects go on and have great careers? Sure. But they might not. The fact that the Cardinals were able to acquire Arenado without having to give up Dylan Carlson, Matthew Liberatore or Nolan Gorman is without question a massive success.
Oh, and they somehow convinced the Rockies to send $51m to help them pay for Arenado.
This trade alone qualifies the offseason a major success for St Louis.
We predict that Arenado hits .265, over 30 home runs, over 100 RBI and wins his 9th consecutive gold glove.
Just missed out - Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright
Key Departure - Kolten Wong
Wong had been the Cardinals second baseman for the last 7 or so year, but he has departed as a free agent and signed a 2 year $18m deal with the division rival Brewers.
Wong will be missed, both for his consistency with the bat and his defensive skills. He averaged .261 and while he didn't hit for much power, the contact hitter rarely struck out and walked more than his fair share. But it was his defence which gained him the most plaudits in recent years when he won gold gloves in each of his last two seasons in St Louis.
It would appear that the Cardinals have two options to fill the gap at second base.
Firstly, Matt Carpenter has played 2nd for the Cardinals before although he hasn't played there since 2018. He struggled in 2020 when he hit just .186 in 50 games.
Secondly, Tommy Edman was deployed as a utility player last season which included 8 games at second base. He played an additional 29 games there the previous season too, so he knows the position well.
We think that Edman gets the nod here simply because he hit better last season and has really impressed in spring training so far. Being a switch hitter and a respectable amount of speed make him the favourite, in our eyes, to start the year as the starting second baseman and be the lead off hitter for St Louis.
Notable rookie cards - Kodi Whitley, Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals have two rookie representatives in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Kodi Whitley is one of our favourite success stories from last season. He was picked by the Cardinals in the 27th round of the 2017 draft, which means 813 players were chosen before he was. Having Tommy John surgery in 2016 and pitching only 5.1 innings in the NCAA season prior to the draft severely impacted his prospects of being drafted higher, but we love to see underdogs succeed.
And succeed he did. In a 2020 season that saw him miss significant time due to a positive COVID-19 test, Whitley pitched 4.2 innings out of the bullpen with a 1.93 ERA and 9.6 K/9. For him to even pitch in the Major Leagues at all is a massive success for him, let alone pitch as well as he did in that extremely small sample size.
We think he starts the year in the Cardinals' bullpen and we hope he builds on this solid start to his Major League career.
Dylan Carlson is the Cardinals' top prospect and 13th overall according to MLB Pipeline.
He appeared in 35 games for St Louis last season and hit .200 with 3 home runs and 7 doubles. But those numbers are a little misleading. Carlson was sent to the alternate training camp after struggling in his first 23 big league games, but looked a lot more like his usual self once he returned. In his second spell in the Majors, Carlson hit .278 and gave a much better showing of what he is capable of.
Throughout his time in the minor leagues, Carlson has shown that he can do everything well; hit, field, throw, run...everything.
We predict that he starts Opening Day in the outfield for St Louis and that he finishes the year with a .250 average, 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Nolan Arenado
Yep, him again.
We don't want to repeat anything that we've already said above, so instead we'll talk about who we think will be the next St Louis MVP after Arenado; Jack Flaherty.
Flaherty didn't have the best season in 2020, but again, there are more to his numbers than initially meet the eye. In 40.1 innings over 9 starts, Flaherty had a 4.91 ERA which seems pretty far removed from his stellar 2.75 ERA performances in 2019 which earned him Cy Young and MVP votes.
But last year his 10.9 K/9 was a career high and he held opposing batters to a .221 average which is significantly below the Major League average. The hard hit percentage of balls in play against him actually went down in 2020 from his excellent 2019 season.
We think that if ever there was a victim of the small sample size that was the 2020 season, it's Jack Flaherty. His ugly performance when he gave up 9 earned runs in 3 innings against the Brewers in September inflated a bunch of his numbers.
We are predicting that he has another excellent season in 2021 at the top of the St Louis rotation and we think that 180 innings with over 200 strike outs and an ERA around 3.30 are realistic for him.
Player to watch for the future - Nolan Gorman
Nolan Gorman is the 3rd top Cardinals prospect and 38th overall according to MLB Pipeline. He was their 1st round pick in the 2018 draft and has already shown his ability to crush the baseball in the minor leagues.
In two seasons up to Advanced A ball, Gorman hit 82 extra base hits including 32 home runs in 188 games. He struggled somewhat with his strike outs and this, along with his defence at 3rd base, have been areas he has worked on at the Cardinals' alternate training camp. But when he makes contact, he hits it hard and that is a great quality to have as a youngster.
We think that Gorman starts the season at AA Springfield and has the opportunity to show what he can do against a higher calibre of opponent at that level. It's possible he makes his Major League debut this year if he continues to impress in the minors, but we think it's more likely that he gets called up at the start of next season.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Who will pitch at the bottom of their rotation?
The Cardinals look pretty set on their starting rotation going into this season. They've got Flaherty as their true ace and Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim behind him. But Carlos Martinez is now something of an unknown quantity thanks to his dreadful 2020 season with a 9.90 ERA and with his fastball velocity notably down from previous years.
But with an uncertain Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson out for the year following Tommy John surgery and Miles Mikolas looking to return after missing all of last year, there are questions about who will be start at the back of their bullpen.
Mikolas should be available to start at some point this season, but the Cardinals will understandably want to ease him in gently and manage his innings carefully.
But until then, who will take the ball every 5th day?
There are a couple of options; Daniel Ponce de Leon, Johan Oviedo and John Gant are all possibilities. We think that John Gant is probably favourite at the time of writing, thanks to his 2.40 ERA and 10.8 K/9 last year. But he only pitched 15 innings in 2020 so it's unlikely he stays in the rotation for too long as his innings count will be closely monitored.
It'll be interesting to see if anyone makes a strong case to remain in the rotation once Mikolas is deemed healthy enough to return.
Prediction for 2021 - 1st in the NL Central
The Cardinals were probably favourites to win the NL Central before they traded for Nolan Arenado and that trade further cements it.
They have 4 players in Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Tyler O'Neill who have legitimate shots at hitting 30 home runs and they have some excellent starting pitching in Flaherty and Kim and some quality relief pitching in Reyes, Gallegos and Hicks too.
We applaud St Louis for being aggressive this offseason and significantly improving their team at a time when many other teams seem happy to stagnate - including a number of teams in the NL Central.
We predict that the Cardinals win the division and win it comfortably with over 90 wins.
The question then becomes whether or not they can go further in the postseason than they managed last year.
Either way, we think that this will be a fun season for Cardinals fans!
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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