2020 record - 37-23, 2nd place in NL West
Key Addition - Yu Darvish
The Padres completely overhauled their rotation this offseason and we expect all three of their new starting pitchers to have a big impact in San Diego this year.
Not that their rotation was at all poor last season, but it did perhaps lack a little of veteran depth behind the outstanding Dinelson Lamet after they lost Mike Clevinger to injury.
The Padres made three big trades this winter to acquire the new arms for their rotation. Joe Musgrove came across from the Pirates in a three team trade that also included the Mets. San Diego sent Joey Lucchesi - who was optioned last year after pitching 5.2 innings with a 7.94 ERA - to New York. They also sent David Bednar who has struggled in a limited number of big league innings and 3 prospects, of whom none have pitched above A ball, to Pittsburgh.
We think that Joe Musgrove has a very solid first season in San Diego and that he pitches around 170 innings with an ERA close to 3.70.
Blake Snell came across from Tampa Bay in a deal which sent 4 players to the Rays. Luis Patino was the biggest name moving east and the 19th overall top prospect looks to have an excellent career ahead of him. Also going to Tampa Bay was Francisco Mejia who was once a highly rated prospect but had seen his value decrease in recent years and 2 prospects neither of whom have pitched above A ball.
Snell won the Cy Young in 2018 when he won 21 games and we predict he has another very good year in 2021. 160 innings with an ERA around 3.30 seem realistic for him.
But despite how good we think Snell and Musgrove will be, we predict that Yu Darvish will be the best of their new starting pitchers.
Darvish cost San Diego Zach Davies and 4 very young prospects, which seems like an excellent deal for a player coming off a season where he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting with a 2.01 ERA.
Darvish was simply outstanding in 2020. He posted career best home run and walk percentages which goes a long way to explaining his outstanding ERA.
We predict that Darvish will finish the year with an ERA around 3.20 and will combine with Snell to become an imposing 1-2 punch at the top of the Padres rotation.
Key Departure - Trevor Rosenthal
The majority of departures for the Padres this offseason have been through trades. Of those that have been traded away, Luis Patino will likely be the best. But it's hard to argue when they have acquired such quality to help them contend now.
There have been a few free agents leaving too though. Mitch Moreland, Garrett Richards, Kirby Yates and Jason Castro are among those now with other teams. And had he been healthy and not to unfortunately undergo the second Tommy John surgery of his career, Yates might have been our pick here.
But Trevor Rosenthal was as close to perfect once he joined the Padres at the trading deadline last season. He pitched 10 innings with a zero ERA and 15.3 K/9. Sure, it is a very small sample size but we think he might be missed in their bullpen this season.
San Diego signed Mark Melancon and Keone Kela as replacements and both are very good relievers. So it looks like they have a stronger bullpen this season than they did in 2020.
Notable rookie cards - Luis Patino
The Padres have one representative in the rookie class of 2021 Topps Series 1.
Luis Patino is the 19th overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline and, as we noted above, is now in the Tampa Bay organisation.
Patino looks set to start the season at AAA Durham and we think he gets called up the Rays around or before the All Star break.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Fernando Tatis Jr.
There are so many options to chose from here. We've already talked about their new starting pitchers. Manny Machado his 16 home runs with a .304 average as he finished 3rd in MVP voting last year. Jake Cronenworth was 2nd in rookie of the year voting and hit 15 doubles in 54 games last season. Chris Paddack, Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer and others all have the potential to have big years too.
But, really, we can't look past Fernando Tatis Jr. He has a career batting average over .300, he already has 39 home runs, 24 doubles and 27 stolen bases in just 143 games. That's less than a full 162 game season.
Tatis Jr. burst onto the scene in 2019 but despite how good he was in his debut season, he was even better in 2020. His home run percentage and walk percentage were up to 6.2% and 10.5% respectively and he brought his strike out percentage down to a MLB average level.
But what was most impressive to us was his hard hit % from last season. In 2020, Tatis Jr. had an exit velocity of 95mph+ on 62.2% of balls he put in play.
Quite simply, he can do everything really, really well. He's one of the few true superstars in baseball today and we expect that he will put up excellent numbers again this season. We predict a .290 average with 40 home runs and 30 stolen bases for him in 2021. We think that will comfortably be good enough to be the Padres MVP and possibly the NL MVP too.
Player to watch for the future - MacKenzie Gore
MacKenzie Gore was the 1st round pick and 3rd overall for the Padres in the 2017 draft and the left hander is the top prospect in San Diego's farm system.
Before we talk about Gore a little more, we wanted to take a second to note how impressive it is that San Diego has been able to trade for all the excellent players and they still have 4 prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospect list.
Gore is the 6th overall prospect for good reason. He has impressed in the minor leagues up to AA level so far, where he has a 2.56 ERA, 12 K/9 and an outstanding 0.6 HR/9.
He had a chance of pitching for the Padres last season but instead spent the year honing his craft at San Diego's alternative training camp. He has 4 excellent pitches which includes a fastball in the mid-to-high 90's and a very good slider which has the potential to earn him a ton of strikeouts.
He still has a little to work on in terms of consistently throwing all of his pitches confidently for strikes and his mechanics, but we think that the coaching at the alternative training camp last season will have a big impact.
We predict that Gore starts 2021 in the rotation at AAA El Paso and he has a good chance of making his big league debut this season. But in the long term, we think Gore can be a legitimate ace in San Diego.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Can they catch the Dodgers in the NL West and fight past them in the postseason?
In 2020, the Padres were very, very good. They were ranked 3rd in the NL for best pitcher ERA, 3rd for home runs hit and 1st for stolen bases.
Their record of 37-23 would have topped every other National League division and 2 other in the American League too.
But the Los Angeles Dodgers were the best team in baseball last year and they finished top of the NL West and knocked the Padres out of the playoffs in the Divisional Series.
We think that both the Dodgers and the Padres will be very good this season too and that there is a decent chance that they meet in the postseason once again.
If they do meet in the playoffs, we think that San Diego's improved starting pitching will make it a very close match-up. But will it be enough to get past the Dodgers? We can't wait to find out!
Prediction for 2021 - 2nd in the NL West
We think that San Diego will compete with the Dodgers at the top of the NL West all season long. It'll be close, but we think that LA will just win the regular season battle by a game or two.
We predict that both the Dodgers and the Padres will return to the postseason in 2021 and it'll be a very tight series if they do meet in the playoffs.
It'll likely be a very exciting season for Padres fans!
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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