2020 record - 19-41, 5th place in NL Central
Key Addition - Tyler Anderson
The Pirates were quite busy this offseason but most of their transactions involved trading away established Major Leaguers in return for prospects who will likely take a few years to graduate up their farm system.
So the choices for their key addition who can make an impact in 2021 were limited.
They traded cash for OF Dustin Fowler with Oakland, signed Todd Frazier as a non-roster invitee and picked up catcher Michael Perez from the waiver wire. We think that while they offer the Pirates greater depth at the Major League level, none of these players will be regular starters for Pittsburgh.
Frazier and Fowler appear good fits as platoon players and Perez projects to be their back-up catcher.
They also bolstered their bullpen with the acquisitions of Trevor Cahill, Duane Underwood Jr, Chasen Shreve and David Bednar. Out of those 4, Bednar is the one we think will be the biggest success for the Pirates.
Bednar came across from the Padres in a 3 team trade that sent SP Joe Musgrove to San Diego. He has struggled in the Majors in a very small sample size but has a very decent 2.70 ERA and 12.4 K/9 in the minor leagues.
We think that a full season and a long leash with the Pirates will allow him the opportunity to translate come of minor league successes to the big leagues.
But in the end we decided to pick Tyler Anderson here. After a rocky 2019 in Colorado (pun intended), Anderson had a good season last year for the Giants. In San Francisco, Anderson had a 4.37 ERA and a career low 0.8 HR/9 which allow for some optimism. His strike out numbers were a little down in 2020 but so was the slugging percentages of opposing batters.
We don't think that he'll come close to replacing the gaps in the rotation left by Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove but he'll be an above average pitcher for the Pirates this season.
We predict 150 innings with an ERA around 4.70 for Anderson this year.
Key Departure - Jameson Taillon
Taillon is one of our favourite players in the whole of baseball because of how admirably he has battled a seemingly continuous stream of adversities in his way. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 before he even made his Major League debut, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2017 and he missed all of last year with a torn flexor tendon and UCL.
Despite all of these challenges, Taillon has always bounced back and been a top quality starting pitcher for the Pirates.
In January, the Pirates traded Taillon to the Yankees for a trio of prospects and while those prospects have a decent chance of making an impact in a few years, the subtraction of Taillon makes them less competitive right now.
But after a 2020 season where Pittsburgh finished with comfortably the worst record of all Major League teams, GM Ben Cherington understandably wanted to boost their farm system as it was highly unlikely that they would be challenging for the division in the next few years.
But it didn't necessarily have to be this way. Trading away Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow was a huge mistake. Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole have all been traded in recent years too.
The Pirates have essentially been in a trade anything of value mode in recent years. Their performance at the Major League level has suffered, but at least the trades they made this winter have upgraded their farm system. Time will tell if they made the right call.
Just missed out - Joe Musgrove, Josh Bell, Chris Archer
Notable rookie cards - None
There are no Pittsburgh rookie cards in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Ke'Bryan Hayes
Hayes has been the top prospect for the Pirates for the last two years according to MLB Pipeline after being picked in the first round of the 2015 draft.
Hayes made his debut last season and despite playing in only 24 games, he still earned rookie of the year votes and had a 1.9 WAR.
That is because of how impressive he was for the Pirates. In 95 plate appearances, Hayes hit .376, 14 extra base hits and 9 walks. Those are outstanding numbers by anyone's definition, but there were a few other things that really dazzled us.
56.3% of the balls he made contact with had an exit velocity of more than 95mph and nearly 70% of the time he hit the ball down the middle. That is a recipe for success if ever we saw one.
Unfortunately we don't think that Pirates fans will have too much to cheer about this season, but Hayes will absolutely be a success story this year.
We predict that Hayes will hit .280 with over 20 home runs in 2021 for Pittsburgh.
Player to watch for the future - Nick Gonzales
Gonzales is the #2 top prospect for the Pirates and 43rd overall according to MLB Pipeline and that he is ranked this highly without having played a single professional game yet speaks volumes about his potential ability.
Gonzales was the Pirates first round pick in the 2020 draft after he hit a ridiculous .399 over three seasons for New Mexico State in the NCAA.
He continued to impress at the Pirates alternate training camp last year with the Pittsburgh front office raving about his bat speed and discipline at the plate.
He projects as a second baseman in the long term but has the flexibility to play shortstop and in the outfield too if needed. He still requires a little more time to develop his power swing, but we think this will come before long.
But it's his ability to hit consistently for a high average which we like the most about him; and it's this ability which means he's likely on a fast track to Pittsburgh.
But considering that he has yet to play a game in the minor leagues, we think that he'll likely start the year at AA Altoona and be called up to Pittsburgh around the All Star break of 2022.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Will any of the Pirates perform well enough to be traded for additional prospects at the trade deadline?
The Pirates were the worst team in Major League Baseball in 2020 and it will likely be a couple more years before they are in good shape to contend again.
With this rebuild mindset comes a number of potential positives for the future.
First, they have the opportunity to pick first in the draft and hopefully they can find a similar player to other recent 1st overall picks Adley Rutschman and Spencer Torkelson.
Secondly, if any of the veterans on their roster have value then they can be traded for additional prospects who can potentially help the team when they are in a better position to be competitive. And this is where our interest lies right now.
Can any of their roster perform well enough to be traded for prospects at the trade deadline? Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez appear to be possibilities here and would be attractive to contending teams this season if they perform well. But there could easily be one or two surprises here too.
We'll be watching closely to see if any surprising players rise to make themselves potential trade bait.
Prediction for 2021 - 5th in the NL Central
This probably doesn't come as much of a surprise. Pittsburgh were the worst team in the Major Leagues in 2020 and their big league team has had some notable subtractions in Bell, Musgrove and Taillon this offseason.
We think that they are likely favourites to "earn" the #1 pick in the draft for the second straight year which, like we said above, gives them a great opportunity to add some top class talent to their farm system.
This season likely won't be pretty for Pirates fans but if they can make good use of the draft and develop the young talent that they already have then it shouldn't be too long before they become competitive again.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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