2020 record - 28-32, 3rd place in NL East
Key Addition - J.T. Realmuto
Whilst not technically an addition because Realmuto re-signed with the Phillies after becoming a free agent, he still represents the biggest signing for Philadelphia this offseason.
Realmuto has been outstanding for them since trading for him in 2019. If he wasn't already, the last two years in Philadelphia have cemented him as the premier catcher in Major League Baseball.
He has hit .273 with 36 home runs and a 5.8 WAR since joining the Phillies and they were understandably keen to re-sign him and were successful in battling a number of other teams for his signature.
Realmuto signed a 5 year $115.5m contact to be the backstop at Citizens Bank Park for the foreseeable future; a move which gives them considerable offensive and defensive production at a premium position.
We think that this is an excellent signing for the Phillies and that he will keep putting up the kinds of numbers that Phillies fans have seen in recent years. We predict that Realmuto hits .275 with 25 home runs and 80 RBI.
The Phillies have also been very proactive in improving their bullpen, with no fewer than 9 signings who project as relief pitchers in 2021. They needed reinforcements there because their bullpen was not good in 2020. The combined ERA of all of the 2020 Phillies relief pitchers was a humongous 8.44 so it's easy to see why they wanted to improve here.
They signed free agent Archie Bradley who has a career ERA under 4, they traded for Jose Alvarado who has an excellent high-90s fastball/curveball combination and they signed a number of others to provide much needed bullpen competition and depth. The Phillies look set to be much improved in this area in 2021.
Just missed out - Didi Gregorius, Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado
Key Departure - Jake Arrieta
Free agent Arrieta opted for something of a homecoming with the Cubs rather than re-sign in Philadelphia. Arrieta played for the Phillies for 3 years and over that time they saw his ERA increase year-on-year until it passed 5 last season. His strikeout % was down each season and opposing batting averages were up each year.
But despite the downward trend of his numbers, Arrieta was a reliable arm in the Philadelphia rotation, his 2019 elbow injury aside.
The Phillies rotation looks to be largely unchanged in 2021, with Matt Moore appearing to be the favourite to replace the hole Arrieta leaves. Moore comes back to MLB after spending a very successful year in Japan with Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. With the Hawks, Moore had a 2.65 ERA through 85 innings of work and led them to win the 2020 Japan Series.
We think that Moore puts up similar numbers to Arrieta - a .500 record with an ERA just below 5. But at $3m, Moore will cost significantly less than Arrieta did last season which may have been a factor they considered when offering Realmuto his huge contract.
Notable rookie cards - Spencer Howard, Alec Bohm
The Phillies have two rookie representatives in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Spencer Howard is the top Phillies prospect and 42nd overall according to MLB Pipeline and he made his debut last season. He started 6 games for Philadelphia and showed glimpses of promise in those 24.1 innings. Howard has 4 above average pitches and has shown in the minor leagues what he can do. In 3 minor league seasons, he had 12 K/9 and an ERA in the low 3's which is excellent.
Unfortunately, in the Majors last seasons Howard's opponents batted .300 off him and hit home runs at a rate considerably above the MLB average.
We think that Howard starts the year at AAA LeHigh Valley and likely gets called back up around the All Start break, or earlier if the Phillies have issues with injuries.
Alec Bohm burst on to the Major League scene in 2020 and quickly showed why the Phillies drafted him 3rd overall in the 2018 draft. The arrival of Bohm had been highly anticipated by Phillies fans for a long time and he didn't disappoint.
He played in 44 games last season and hit an excellent .338 including 15 extra base hits. His performances earned him a 2nd place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.
We were especially impressed at Bohm's approach to batting; with over 60% of his batted balls going up the middle and a hard hit percentage well above the Major League average.
We think that Bohm starts 2021 as the starting 3rd baseman in Philadelphia and continues the excellent start he has made to his MLB career. We predict a .290, 20 HR & 80 RBI season for Bohm.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper signed a gigantic 13 year $330m contract with the Phillies in 2019 and has so far performed well, if unspectacularly, to justify the largest free agency contract ever handed out (total salary, not AAV).
In 2 years with the Phillies, Harper has hit .262 with 48 HR and with a 6.2 WAR in 215 games. Which is pretty damn good. But we think he will have the best season of his career in 2021 and we have our reasons.
Firstly, Harper led the whole of MLB in walks last year and 2020 marked the first time in his career where he had more walks than strikeouts. Secondly, his hard hit percentage on balls in play has increased to over 50%. And thirdly, he is pulling the ball and hit more line drives than in recent years.
If all of these continue - and we think that they will - then Harper looks set to have a big year.
We predict that Harper hits .270, close to 40 home runs and well over 100 RBI in 2021. Which we think will put him in the conversation for NL MVP, let alone the MVP for the Phillies.
Player to watch for the future - Mick Abel
Abel was the 1st round pick for the Phillies in the 2020 draft and already he is their #2 prospect and 76th overall according to MLB Pipeline. This is all without having played a single professional inning after the minor league season was cancelled last year.
Abel is 6 foot 5, which is always a plus for a pitcher and he has shown a decent 4 pitch repertoire which includes a fastball that hits the high 90s on the radar gun. He was the first high schooler taken in the 2020 draft and at just 19 years old, he's still a distance away from making his debut for the Phillies.
But he has a ton of potential and really impressed the Phillies front office with his performances at their instructional league. We think that it'll likely be 3 or so more years before fans get to see him at Citizens Bank Park, but we'll be watching closely to see how he develops this season.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Who will start the season in CF, and how will the Phillies deal with Odubel Herrera?
Assuming that they don't have any injuries to deal with, the Phillies look to have a line-up that is set for Opening Day with the exception of centerfield.
There appears to be a 3-man battle between Roman Quinn, Scott Kingery and Adam Haseley. The best performer in Spring Training likely gets the nod, with one of the others on the bench as the 4th outfielder. We think Quinn wins this battle, with Kingery on the bench.
But this positional battle isn't what makes this such an interesting story. The Phillies haven't had a true everyday centerfielder since Odubel Herrera. And after being arrested for assault, suspended by MLB for breaking their domestic violence policy and being designated for assignment, Herrera is back in camp with the Phillies and is reportedly in the mix for the CF job.
The most interesting aspect of this will be how the Phillies fans react if he gets the job. It's awful, but if you are good at baseball then you can get away with almost anything. Roberto Osuna in Houston, Aroldis Chapman & Domingo German in New York, and a shockingly high number of other players have been given a second chance when the same opportunities arguably wouldn't have have been afforded to them in any other career.
It's the fans who often sway the actions of Major League teams. Toronto were vocal in not wanting Osuna to pitch for them again. Zack Britton has been vocally critical of German's inclusion on their roster.
To his credit, Herrera has publicly apologised to fans and expressed what appears to be genuine remorse.
It seems unlikely that Herrera is on the Phillies Opening Day roster, but he might get a shot if injuries strike their outfield. They are paying him over $10m this season so that might be some incentive to give him a second chance, but ultimately we think it will come down to whether or not he can perform at a high level.
Prediction for 2021 - 3rd in the NL East
We think that the Phillies will be a better team in 2021 than they were last season. Their bullpen looks to be much stronger, a full 162 game season from Alec Bohm is something we are really looking forward to and we think Bryce Harper has another big year. They were also hit hard by COVID last season too and they have been working hard to ensure that isn't a factor for them this time around.
But we have questions about their rotation outside of Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler. And we don't think that their line-up is as strong as those in Atlanta or New York.
We predict that the Phillies will be competitive in a very strong division, they finish above .500, challenge for the wild card but finish just short of the postseason.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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