2020 record - 36-24, 1st place in AL Central
Key Addition - Andrelton Simmons
The Twins signed free agent Simmons to a 1 year $10.5m contract in January. Simmons is an outstanding fielder at shortstop and has won 4 Gold Gloves & 1 Platinum Glove in 2013 for being the best fielder in the whole league.
He's no slouch with the bat either. He hit .281, 57 extra base hits and stole 51 bases in his 5 years with the Angels.
Simmons is exactly what Minnesota needed to acquire this offseason - a considerable fielding improvement at SS, which in turn allows them to be flexible with what position they play Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez.
The Twins have made a quite a few nice additions to their team, notably the really good closer Alex Colome & two former Blue Jays in starters J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker.
But it was the impact glove of Andrelton Simmons which swayed us towards him.
We think that Simmons hits .280 with double digit home runs and another season of outstanding defence in 2021.
Key Departure - Trevor May
Trevor May has been a revelation since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. Prior to the surgery, May had an ERA of 5.14 but he's moved that down significantly to 3.19 since his return.
May's emergence as a quality arm out of the bullpen meant that he would inevitably be due a pay check that matched his on field performance. That proved to be the case as he signed with the Mets on a 2 year $15.5m deal.
Such a contract was too expensive for the Twins, who have made a number of moves this off season that are designed to lower their wage bill.
In another wage cutting move, the Twins non-tendered Eddie Rosario to avoid his salary in 2021 which would have been around $10m.
They also lost Jake Odorizzi to Houston in free agency, however it's unclear which Jake Odorizzi the Astros are getting; the fantastic All-Star 2019 version or the injury plagued 2020 version.
But in all credit to the Twins, they aren't tanking. Far from it.
They have been very active in the free agent market. The Twins signed Alex Colome as an excellent late arm in their bullpen to replace May and they've got a number of excellent outfielder prospects, including Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, who can make a difference at the big league level sooner rather than later to replace Rosario.
Just missed out - Jake Odorizzi, Marwin Gonzalez
Notable rookie cards - None
The Twins don't have any rookie card representatives in the Topps 2021 Series 1 set.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Nelson Cruz
Just how long can this guy keep going? The 40 year old had yet another outstanding season in 2020 when he came 6th in the MVP vote (which is typically difficult for DH's to win) and won a Silver Slugger. Just incredible.
Since joining the Twins in 2019, Cruz has been remarkably consistent both in terms of his statistics and durability apart from a couple of trips to the 10 day IL.
He has hit .308, 57 home runs, 141 RBI and 3.7 WAR in 173 games in Minnesota. It seems as though every year there are those that will say "this is the year he regresses in a big way". But not us. Not this year. He gave zero indication that he will be just as good in 2021 as he was in 2020 and many years before that.
We think that he'll bat .265 and hit 35 home runs with 95 RBI leading the Twins towards their goal of reaching the postseason for the 3rd straight year.
Player to watch for the future - Alex Kirilloff
We initially had Royce Lewis earmarked for this, but he has been ruled out for the entire season after suffering a torn ACL. In an awful turn of bad luck, Lewis - Minnesota's #1 prospect and 17th overall according to MLB Pipeline - slipped on a patch of ice during the recent snow storms which passed through much of the southern US a couple of weeks ago.
But that's not to take anything away from Alex Kirilloff who is a standout prospect in his own right. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2016 draft, Kirilloff became one of the few players to make their debut in the playoffs in 2020. Which means that despite already playing for the Twins, he has yet to record an official at bat because of how playoff numbers don't count towards a player's career.
He projects as either a first baseman or a corner outfielder, but we think he's more likely to end up at first in the long term. But his flexibility will be an asset for the Twins this season and into the future.
Kirilloff has impressed in his time in the minor leagues; hitting .317, 36 home runs and 177 RBI in 3 seasons up to the AA level.
We think that Kirilloff will be on the Twins Opening Day roster and that he'll comfortably hit .270 with 10 home runs and 60 RBI in his first official season in Minnesota.
Just missed out - Trevor Larnach, Jordan Balazovic, Royce Lewis
Storyline to keep an eye on - Will this be the year that the Twins FINALLY win a postseason series?
This is a record which is as astonishing as it is unwanted for Twins fans. They have been to the postseason 8 times since 2003 but have lost at the first hurdle every single time (including 6 times to the New York Yankees).
Will this be the season that they finally break through and progress deeper into the playoffs? Maybe.
They've got a strong line-up, a legitimate ace in Kenta Maeda and a solid bullpen. We think that they are probably one quality pitcher away for us to be more confident that they can break their unwanted streak.
Prediction for 2021 - 1st in the AL Central
We think that the Twins will finish the season as the champions of the AL Central for the 3rd straight year. But it'll be very close and come down to the wire with the White Sox in a battle for 1st place.
It's always difficult making predictions like this before the season has started (in fact, this was written before a single Spring Training game had been played), let alone before rosters have been announced.
But we think Minnesota will add a starting pitcher, either before the season or at the trade deadline, and that gives us some confidence that they can triumph over Chicago. But only just.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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