2020 record - 31-29, 2nd place in NL East
Key Addition - Dylan Floro
Floro joined the Marlins in February as part of a trade with the Dodgers. He is coming off an excellent season in Los Angeles where he notably reduced his H/9, HR/9 and BB/9 numbers as he helped the Dodgers win the World Series.
Miami have totally revamped their bullpen this offseason with potentially 6 or more new additions. Floro, Anthony Bass & Adam Cimber all look set to play important roles in relief for Miami in 2021.
But for all the new faces in the bullpen mix, Miami fans might be a little disappointed to see that Adam Duvall as the only new name to join their offense. Especially after their aggressiveness at the trade deadline last year where they made excellent progress towards being competitive again.
Duvall will be a welcome inclusion to Marlins Park outfield, particularly with his glove and his power at the plate. Though we don't think that this alone will be enough to help Miami beat the Braves or Mets in the NL East this season.
Away from the diamond, the appointment of Kim Ng as GM might just end up being the biggest addition that the Marlins made this offseason. Ng, the first female & first Asian-American GM in MLB history, is an excellent appointment and one that we think should have happened a long time ago.
Ng is known for being a top class negotiator and she has a fantastic baseball resume. The Miami fans will be hoping she can build on the success of last season and turn the Marlins into a perennial threat in the NL East.
Key Departure - Jose Urena
Urena has been the Opening Day starter for Miami in 2 of the last 3 seasons which says a lot about his potential ability. He had a few really good seasons for the Marlins but has struggled in his return from injury. A herniated disk in his lower back landed him on the 60 day IL in 2019 and he hasn't really got back to his 2017-18 form since.
Urena signed a 1 year deal with the Tigers as a free agent this winter and his departure leaves Miami with a very young starting rotation. Not that they aren't talented though.
Sandy Alcantara has a 3.69 ERA since joining Miami.
Pablo Lopez had 1.3 WAR and limited opposing batters to a .230 average last year.
Elieser Hernandez has steadily increased his strikeout percentage in each of his 3 seasons in the Majors; up to an excellent 32.1% in 2020.
And Sixto Sanchez is an outstanding young talent who we'll say more about below.
Whilst these 4 starts have an average age of only 24, they have a ton of potential.
It might be a little too much to ask for them all to hit the ground running in 2021, but we think they will be a major force in years to come.
Notable rookie cards - Sixto Sanchez, Monte Harrison, Jesus Sanchez, Nick Neidert, Eddy Alvarez
The Marlins have 5 rookie representatives in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set, which is the most of all 30 MLB teams.
Sixto Sanchez is the top Miami prospect and #15 overall according to MLB Pipeline. He was a key piece in the trade which sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia in 2019 and since joining the Marlins, Sanchez has done nothing but impress.
His excellent minor league stats earned Sanchez a call up in August last year where he started 7 regular season games and finished the season with a 3.46 ERA and 1.4 WAR. His regular season performances were good enough for Miami to hand him the ball twice in the postseason and his playoff performance against the Cubs in the Wild Card series only further enhanced his reputation
We expect that Sanchez will start the season towards the top of the Marlins rotation and will finish the year with an ERA around 3.60.
Monte Harrison made his debut in 2020 but the outfielder struggled to get his bat going in the 32 games he appeared in. But he has hit well throughout his time in the minor leagues and he only has a small sample size of games at the Major League level - particularly at AAA.
We think that Harrison will most likely start the year in the minors, probably joining a stacked OF at AAA Jacksonville, and that he gets called up again after the All-Star break.
Jesus Sanchez managed just a single hit in 25 at bats over 10 games in his first big league season in 2020. Those numbers aren't a true representation of him as a player though. When he made contact, he had a hard hit % considerably above the MLB average with an average exit velocity of 95.5 mph. He's close to being a .300 hitter in the minor leagues too so when he gets another chance with the Marlins, we think he'll do much better than his numbers from 2020 showed.
We think that he'll be another Marlins OF starting the year at Jacksonville and he'll get another shot in the Majors when rosters expand in September.
Nick Neidert pitched 8.1 innings out of the bullpen for the Marlins last year opponents hit him fairly hard over that extremely small sample size. He has decent numbers in the minor leagues, but as you might expect, they have steadily increased each time he moved up a level. We think that he begins the year as a starting pitcher for Jacksonville and the Marlins keep a close eye on him and his development in 2021.
Finally, Eddy Alvarez has been a solid if unspectacular hitter in the minors and when he began his MLB career in 2020, he hit .189 with 16 K's in 12 games. But Alvarez made headlines for an unrelated reason when he played against the Orioles in August. That's because he became the first Olympian (in a sport other than baseball) to play in the Major Leagues since 1919. This story alone is why we are big fans of Alvarez and we hope he gets another chance with the Marlins in 2021.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Starling Marte
Marte came over in a trade from the Diamondbacks at the deadline last year in a move which was somewhat surprising for some. The Marlins had been sellers at the trade deadline for a number of years until last season when they pulled the trigger to bolster their line-up. They were performing well enough to be pushing for a postseason appearance for the first time since 2003 and trading for Marte helped cement their playoff position.
Despite being unfancied going into last season, the Marlins really impressed by not only reaching the playoffs but sweeping the Cubs in their Wild Card matchup. Marte was a very welcome infusion of experience into the Marlins clubhouse and his performances down the stretch were invaluable to them.
We think that Marte will continue to be really valuable for the Marlins in 2021 as they look to return to the playoffs. A season where Marte hits .280 with 20 home runs will go a long way to helping them achieve that goal.
Player to watch for the future - Jazz Chisholm
While it was very tempting to pick JJ Bleday here, the 20th overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline. But we have a huge soft spot for Jazz Chisholm after he played for the GB national team in the 2017 World Baseball Classic Qualifiers.
Despite being of Bahamian descent, Chisholm qualified for Team GB and the then 20 year old really shone. He has developed into the 66th overall prospect in 2021 and has impressed with his power, ability to draw walks and his speed throughout the minor leagues.
We think that he will probably start the year in Jacksonville but will be called up to Miami before long.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Will this be the year Miami starts to see more returns for the big name trades they've made?
In recent years, the Marlins have traded away some of the biggest names in the game. Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto & Marcell Ozuna to name just a few.
Those trades happened a while ago and this might be the year when the winners and losers of those trades could become clearer. Miami received a massive haul of prospects for those big name players which were traded and they have helped the Marlins to have one of the top farm systems in the game.
But at some point, those prospects will have to perform at the big league level. Will this be the year that they really make an impact at the big league level?
We think that a number of them will, with Sixto Sanchez leading the way.
Prediction for 2021 - 5th in the NL East
The Marlins surprised everyone with how well they performed in 2020 so we feel really bad about predicting a 5th place finish this time around. But when we look at their competition in the NL East, we struggle to see how Miami finish above any of the other stacked line-ups in their division.
But they are still in a really good position moving forward. Their farm system is loaded with high ceiling talent and they have an outstanding GM in Ng.
While the Marlins were undoubtedly a huge success story last season, there will be greater successes ahead for them. But probably not in 2021.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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