2020 record - 29-31, 2nd place in AL West
Key Addition - Michael Brantley
This is another one of those technical additions because Houston re-signed Michael Brantley after he became a free agent at the end of last season. The Astros signed Brantley to a 2 year $32m contract, which is almost identical to the last contract he signed in Houston.
The 33 year old left fielder has a strong 2 years in Houston; hitting .309, 27 home runs with an impressive 6.5 WAR over 194 games.
But it was the circumstances surrounding Brantley re-signing with the Astros which made headlines - for the wrong reason.
It was initially reported on twitter that Brantley had signed a 3 year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, which forced Toronto to issue a hastily written statement that they "remain interested...but there is no deal currently in place". Brantley would go on to re-sign with Houston, leaving reporters somewhat embarrassed.
We get that when there aren't games being played in the offseason, reporters are sometimes have to get creative when writing. But we've never really understood the need to be the first one to report something without it being certain that it factually correct - we're looking at you, Bob Nightengale.
But either way, Houston got their man in the end and if Brantley's interview comments of having "unfinished business" are anything to go by, he looks raring to go for the Astros in 2021.
We think Brantley will hit close to .300 with 15 home runs and 75 RBI in yet another productive season for him.
Just missed out - Jake Odorizzi
Key Departure - George Springer
One of Houston's free agents that didn't re-sign with the team was George Springer who signed a huge 6 year $150m contract in Canada with the Blue Jays.
The 2017 World Series MVP will be sorely missed in centerfield, with possible replacement Miles Straw offering good speed but nowhere close to the same offensive production Houston became used to with Springer.
There's a lack of outfield depth in Houston right now, especially at CF, so we expect that they will look to acquire someone to provide depth either before the season starts or before the trade deadline.
Options already with the team aren't great but include Steven Souza Jr who has played 4 games at CF since 2017 and Chas McCormick, Ronnie Dawson & Jose Siri, none of whom have made their big league debut yet.
Notable rookie cards - Christian Javier, Brandon Bielak, Blake Taylor
The Astros have 3 rookie card representatives in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Christian Javier made an excellent impression in his first major league season. He started 10 games for Houston in 2020 and finished with a 5-2 record with 3.48 ERA and a below 1 WHIP. While impressing as a started during the regular season, Javier was just as impressive as a multi-inning reliever in the postseason when he pitched 9.1 innings with an ERA of 2.89 in 5 games out of the bullpen.
His performances in 2020 leave us in no doubt that he'll start the season on the Opening Day roster, likely as the 4th or 5th starter. But we think that in the long term, he'll be a very useful arm out of the bullpen.
Pitcher Brandon Bielak was hit hard in his first season in the Major Leagues. Opposing batters hit .305 off the righty, with a 1.750 WHIP and a home run rate of nearly double the MLB average.
But with his 2020 struggles aside, Bielak has shown good command throughout his career which means that we think he has the potential to be a 4th or 5th starter in the Majors. How much of an opportunity a Houston team that expects to contend will give him remains to be seen.
Blake Taylor made his debut in July last year and did really well out of the bullpen. In 20.2 innings, he struck out 17 and finished with a 2.18 ERA. He quickly gained a reputation as a strike thrower but only used 2 pitches - his fastball and slider - which will likely keep him in the bullpen.
We think that he is in the bullpen on Opening Day and gets into plenty of games as the season progresses.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Yordan Alvarez
Houston have a lot of big name players in their line-up; Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve & Carlos Correa to name just three. But we think that the 2019 rookie of the year, Yordan Alvarez, will be Houston's MVP in 2021.
Bregman had a solid - if not spectacular - 2020. Altuve wasn't good; hitting .219 with a negative WAR and Correa's numbers were down on the previous year too.
So we've picked Alvarez to continue his blistering 2019 RoY form after missing nearly all of 2020 with a positive COVID-19 test and a knee injury which resulted in surgery. Alvarez appears to be fully recovered ready to get going again and if so, his bat in the middle of the Houston order can help to offset the loss of Springer.
We think that conservative expectations for a healthy Alvarez are a .270 average, 30 home runs and 95 RBI.
Player to watch for the future - Forrest Whitley
Whitley is Houston's top prospect and 41st overall according to MLB Pipeline. Whitley was drafted by the Astros in the 1st round in 2016 and has a really high potential. However, he struggled at AAA Round Rock in 2019, has struggled injuries and was suspended for 50 games in 2018 for a positive drug test.
But despite all that, Whitley is the top prospect in the Astros' system for a reason. He has 5 above average pitches and can touch 99mph on the radar with his fastball.
We think that he'll start the season in the minor leagues but will make his big league debut at some point this season.
It's worth pointing out that Houston have one of the least impressive farm systems in the whole league, with Keith Law of The Athletic ranking them 25th out of the 30 teams. Trades for big name players like Zack Greinke, high draft picks resulting from their recent success and losing their 1st & 2nd round picks in 2020 and 2021 as punishment for their cheating have all put led to a farm system that leaves Whitley as their sole representative in the top 100 prospects list (MLB Pipeline).
[NB: This was written before it was announced that Forrest Whitley will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2021 season.]
Storyline to keep an eye on - Can the Astros improve their reputation in 2021, following their sign-stealing scandal?
First off, a bit of background.
In November 2019, The Athletic published a story detailing how the Astros illegally used electronic devices to steal signs so that they knew what pitch was about to come. Sign stealing by itself isn't a problem, but using technology to steal them is.
Videos quickly surfaced which showed an audible "bang" just before a breaking ball was about to be pitched. MLB investigated, found that they had acted illegally in the 2017 & 2018 seasons (including the 2017 postseason when they won the World Series) and the fallout was immense.
Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were suspended for a year by MLB and fired by the Astros. Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora, then managers of the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox respectively, were also fired by their teams.
Houston was fined the maximum allowed $5m and forfeited their 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2020 and 2021.
There was outrage in the baseball community, which was arguably exacerbated by a perceived arrogance and refusal by players to immediately apologise. The reputation of the organisation was low.
So it could be argued that Houston got lucky in 2020 because fans weren't able to attend games due to COVID-19 and potentially voice their displeasure towards them. Furthermore, they also avoided having to face the fans in Dodger Stadium, the team they unfairly beat in the 2017 World Series.
Have the Astros improved their reputation since? We're unsure.
The question going into this season is how they will be received by opposing fans now that in person attendance appears to be returning in 2021.
We've already earmarked the 3rd of August to see what reception they receive when they play against the Dodgers in LA for the first time with fans in attendance.
Prediction for 2021 - 1st in the AL West
Even without Springer and with Justin Verlander recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Astros have the best line-up in the AL West and we expect that they will finish comfortably in first place.
Kyle Tucker has made decent progress and looks set to continue, and the core of Altuve, Correa, Alvarez & Bregman will be too much for the other teams in the AL West.
This is the final year under contract for Verlander, Greinke and Correa, so expect Houston to make a strong push into the playoffs before they potentially lose some or all of these players.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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