2020 record - 26-34, 4th place in NL West
Key Addition - C.J. Cron
The Rockies had a reasonably quiet offseason, at least in terms of incoming Major League players. They signed Greg Bird, Dereck Rodriguez, Wynton Bernard and a few others as non-roster invitees although none of them project to make the Rockies roster on Opening Day at time of writing.
They acquired starting pitcher Robert Stephenson and his 5.15 career ERA in a trade with Cincinnati which saw Jeff Hoffman go to the Reds, which leaves Jesus Tinoco as the only player acquired for Troy Tulowitzki that is still in the Rockies organisation.
Austin Gomber looked impressive in 29 innings last season with the Cardinals where he started 4 games and finished the year with a 1.86 ERA and an opposing batting average of .190. Gomber looks set to immediately join the Rockies rotation and we predict that he pitches around 120 innings with an ERA a shade below 5.
But it's the signing of the free agent Cron who is likely to have the biggest impact for the Rockies this season. He battled with a knee injury last season for Detroit and was limited to playing in just 13 games for the Tigers. His 2020 numbers were significantly below his career averages, but we're willing to give him a pass because of his injuries and the extremely small sample size.
Cron joins the Rockies as they look to improve their production at 1st base from last year when Daniel Murphy and Josh Fuentes combined for 55 games at first base and a combined WAR of -0.2. Although -1.1 of that came from Murphy alone.
If Cron can stay healthy all season, we think he will be a nice upgrade in 1st base production for the Rockies. We predict a .260 average and 30 home runs for Cron in Colorado.
Key Departure - Nolan Arenado
No surprises here.
But this whole situation makes little sense to us. Arenado is one of the best in baseball. He has won a gold glove in every single season he has played, he's a 7 time All Star, his career batting average is close to .300, he has 235 career home runs and 38.9 WAR in only 8 seasons. He's on the right track to get into the Hall of Fame.
Arenado even signed a mammoth 9 year $275m contract with the Rockies just prior to the 2019 season. So where did it all go wrong?
Ken Rosenthal & Nick Groke wrote an excellent article for The Athletic which goes a long way to explain the situation. But it basically comes down to two major missteps by the Rockies front office & ownership.
Firstly, they included an option for Arenado to opt-out of his contract in 2022 and become a free agent. Secondly, they promised him that the team would be competitive and then made some poor free agent signings and let D.J. LaMahieu leave as a free agent which could be perceived as sending the message - rightly or wrongly - that they weren't going to compete. They finished below .500 for the second straight season last year too, which obviously didn't help matters.
So the trade then. Believing that Arenado considered their promise of being competitive to be broken, the Rockies became worried that Arenado would use the opt-out in his contract and leave as a free agent at the end of this season. Knowing that their fans would understandably be angry at that eventuality, they decided to trade him and at least get something in return for him.
Now seems like an appropriate point to mention that the opt-out in Arenado's contract wasn't his idea. It was only inserted into the contract language by GM Jeff Bridich.
So what did the Rockies get in return for one of the best players in the game?
Not enough, by our reckoning.
Austin Gomber had a good 2020 and projects to be Colorado's 4th starter this year. Jake Sommers was a 10th round draft pick who hasn't played above rookie ball yet. Elehuris Montero has a .269 average in the minor leagues up to the AA level. Tony Locey has a 5.29 ERA between rookie and A ball. And Mateo Gil hasn't played above advanced A ball yet.
Most importantly though, once in the Rockies organisation MLB Pipeline ranks only 1 of those players in their top 10 prospects (Montero comes in at #9).
When you note that the Rockies also sent $50m to the Cardinals, the whole thing reeks of a desperation trade on the part of the Rockies.
The players that the Rockies received might all turn out to be superstars. But they might not. It'll be a fair few years before we know for sure what they were able to acquire. But we can't help but think that Colorado have been fleeced to some degree.
Notable rookie cards - Ryan Castellani
The Rockies have one rookie representative in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Ryan Castellani was a 2nd round pick by Colorado in the 2014 draft and the starting pitcher made his debut last season where he started 9 games and pitched 43.1 innings.
The results weren't great. He finished last season with an ERA of 5.83 and a WHIP of nearly 1.454.
But it could be argued that perhaps Castellani was a little unlucky in 2020 because he held opposing batters to a .236 average which is below the Major League average. However, his 6.4% home run rate is almost double the Major League average, his 13.2% strike out percentage is significantly below the MLB average and his 13.8% walk percentage is much higher than average.
Our take-away from that is when hitters made contact, they hit it hard which resulted in a ton of runs being surrendered.
We think that Castellani starts the year at AAA Albuquerque and gets another shot in Denver at some point this season.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Trevor Story
For us, there were only really a few options here; German Marquez & Antonio Senzatela who both pitched well in the rotation last year, Charlie Blackmon who hit over .300 again and Trevor Story.
Story has has a meteoric rise to stardom in Colorado since he made his debut in 2016. He has never hit fewer than 24 home runs in a season (we pro-rated 2020), has been to 2 All Star games and received MVP votes in each of the last three years.
But perhaps most impressive for Story last season was how he increased his walk percentage and strike out percentage to career best numbers without sacrificing any of his power numbers.
We think that Story has another huge season for the Rockies and that he hits around .280 with over 30 home runs, which is good enough more more MVP consideration and another All Star appearance.
But there's a catch. Story is a free agent at the end of this season, which we'll get to in a minute...
Player to watch for the future - Ryan Vilade
Vilade is the #4 prospect in the Rockies' farm system and his stock has been steadily rising since he was picked in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft.
The 22 year old infielder had been steadily climbing the minor league ranks until the minor league season was cancelled in 2020. He had reached Advanced A ball by 2019 he and demonstrated that he could hit well at all the levels he played at.
But it was at A+ Lancaster where he really started to develop into a well rounded hitter. He hit over .300 there and had 49 extra base hits in 128 games for JetHawks. That he was able to maintain his really good batting average and increase his power stats was really impressive. He had 24 stolen bases there too, which only add to the all-round excellent player that he has the potential to be.
He continued to impress at Colorado's alternative training camp too and he has reportedly become even stronger which bodes really well for him and the Rockies.
We think that Vilade starts the year at AA Hartford but he has a chance to play at Coors Field in September or early in 2022.
Storyline to keep an eye on - What will they do with free-agent-to-be Trevor Story?
As we mentioned above, Story is a free agent at the end of this season. The Rockies have said all the right things about wanting to offer him an extension and they have the money that they would have been paying Arenado.
But will he want to extend his stay in Colorado after seeing Arenado leave?
The Rockies could be in a really difficult situation if he hasn't signed an extension by the All Star break.
They could face yet more anger from their fanbase if he leaves as a free agent at the end of the year. Or they could try to trade him at the deadline, which again probably won't go down too well. Especially if Colorado can't get any top prospects in return, like was the case with Arenado.
What adds another dimension to all this is that Story is just one of a number of top quality shortstops who could become free agents at the end of this season. Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javy Baez are just four of them. We think at least a couple will re-sign with their current teams but if the market becomes saturated with high end shortstops, will this increase the likelihood that Story extends his contract with Colorado?
Either way, this will be a really interesting storyline to watch. Although probably not quite as fun for Rockies fans.
Prediction for 2021 - 5th in the NL West
We don't think this will be a pretty season for the Rockies. We think that there will be some key exceptions though. We predict that Senzatela and Marquez continue their good 2020 form into 2021, that Charlie Blackmon will keep hitting balls into the acres of gap in the Coors Field outfield and that Trevor Story will put up numbers that earn him MVP votes again.
But other than that, we're struggling to see much else for Colorado.
In an offseason where their division rival Dodgers and Padres significantly improved their teams, the Rockies got worse.
We can't quite fathom how the Colorado front office can say that they still plan to contend.
We predict that the Rockies finish last in the NL West and most likely challenge for the 1st overall pick in the 2022 draft, especially if they trade Trevor Story.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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