2020 record - 31-29, 3rd place in NL Central
Key Addition - Sean Doolittle
The Reds lost a couple of key pieces from their bullpen due to free agency this offseason, so it was understandably a priority for them to bring in some reinforcements to their relief core.
Former closer Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley pitched excellently for the Reds last season but both have moved on to new pastures.
They still have a core of Lucas Sims (2.45 ERA), Amir Garrett (12.8 K/9), Tejay Antone (2.80 ERA) and others, but Iglesias and Bradley left a gap which needed to be filled. Cincinnati signed Sean Doolittle, Cam Bedrosian and a number of other players to fill out their bullpen and provide greater depth in that area.
Bedrosian's numbers have been consistently improving in each of his last 3 seasons. His ERA, hits/9 and WHIP have all been steadily decreasing since 2018. And although his strikeout numbers were a little lower and his walk numbers a little higher in 2020, his ability to limit home runs was impressive.
Bedrosian didn't allow a single home run last year in 14.2 innings over 11 games. Sure, it's a small sample size but the trends of his numbers suggest that the Reds might have got a real bargain here. As a non-roster invitee, Bedrosian could have genuine value at the trade deadline, if the Reds aren't in contention.
But it was Sean Doolittle who was the biggest name that Cincinnati added this offseason. Doolittle was an important part of the Washington Nationals when they won the World Series in 2019. He struggled with injury last season and was limited to pitching just 7.2 innings. But in Doolittle, the Reds gain two big positives.
First, they add experience to their team but secondly - and we'd argue more importantly - they gain a quality personality for the community.
Doolittle is well known for his charity and philanthropic work; he has been nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award, supported numerous charities and even hosted 17 Syrian refugee families for Thanksgiving in 2015.
Sean Doolittle is one of our favourite players and one of our favourite baseball people too. We are certain that Cincinnati fans will quickly grow fond of him too, for his work both on and off the mound.
We think that Doolittle starts the year as the set-up man in the Reds bullpen and he pitches around 50 innings with an ERA below 4.
Key Departure - Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer left Cincinnati as a free agent this offseason and it was always incredibly unlikely that he would re-sign due to the huge contract he was expected to command.
That turned out to be the case, as he ended up signing a ginormous 3 year $102m deal with the Dodgers.
Bauer had been a true ace for the Reds since arriving from their Ohio neighbours - Cleveland - in 2019. But last season was when he really showed how good he can be. On route to his first Cy Young award, Bauer pitched 73 innings with a league leading 1.73 ERA and career bests in both walks/9 and strikeouts/9.
So to say that Trevor Bauer will be missed in Cincinnati would be something of an understatement. But with no established Major League starting pitchers joining the Reds, they appear to have a big Bauer shaped hole in their rotation.
Tejay Antone would be our pick to join the rotation after starting 4 games last year and we think that Antone will finish the year with an ERA around 4.10.
Notable rookie cards - Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson is the only Reds representative in the Topps 2021 Series 1 set.
Stephenson was a first round pick for the Reds in the 2015 draft and he impressed in his brief Major League debut last year. Stephenson played 4 games as catcher and 3 as a DH in 2020, but with the DH no longer being used in the National League, he may find himself being used as a pitch hitter more often than not due to Tucker Barnhart looking set to be the Reds primary catcher.
Stephenson got 20 plate appearances last season, but hit .294 with two home runs in that tiny sample size. But he gave fans in Cincinnati a taste of what he has to offer.
Stephenson is the 4th top Reds prospect and 95th overall according to MLB Pipeline. He offers excellent power and very good defence at a premium position. It might have taken him a little while to develop as a hitter in the minor leagues, but he looks ready for the big stage now.
We think that he begins Opening Day on the bench for Cincinnati and gets his at bats as a pinch hitter and as their back-up catcher. We predict that Stephenson finishes the year with around 240 plate appearances with a .240 average and double digit home runs.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Eugenio Suarez
We think that Suarez is one of the most under-rated hitters in the whole of the Major Leagues. The fact that he often isn't mentioned alongside some of the other big hitters is a real shame because he is one of the best.
Over the last 5 years, Suarez has hit 145 home runs, nearly 400 RBI and has a .260 average. He finished 2nd in the NL for most home runs in 2019 with 49, his career walk percentage is considerably above the Major League average and his strikeout percentage is only marginally above the average.
Yet despite all this - and twice receiving MVP votes - Suarez has only been an All Star once. That is a travesty. We firmly believe that if Eugenio Suarez played in New York or Los Angeles, then he would be praised much more highly than he is in Cincinnati. And that just isn't right.
We think he has another excellent year for the Reds. We predict that Suarez hits 40 home runs and well over 100 RBI in 2021, which will be more than good enough to earn a second All Star appearance.
Just missed out - Mike Moustakas
Player to watch for the future - Nick Lodolo
The Reds have a number of quality young prospects in their farm system; Kyle Holder, Jose Garcia and Hunter Greene to name just three.
But we've decided to pick Nick Lodolo here. Lodolo was the first round pick for the Reds in the 2019 draft and he quickly moved up to A ball from Rookie ball in his first year of minor league baseball.
In 2019, he pitched 18.1 innings after signing professionally to an impressive 2.45 ERA and a mammoth 14.7 K/9.
The cancellation of the minor league season in 2020 deprived Reds fans of watching him develop further up their farm system. But in 2021 he looks set to build on the great impression from 2019 and his work last year at the Reds alternative training camp.
Lodolo's fastball sits in the mid-90s which is almost a snails pace by todays standards. It is his control, though, which sets him apart. He has fantastic command of his pitches which means he will likely move up the minor league ladder faster than most.
We think that he starts 2021 in the AA Chattanooga rotation and moves up to AAA before the end of the season. We predict he'll be pitching in front of fans at Great American Ball Park in 2022.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Can Joey Votto bounce back after a below-par 2020?
Joey Votto is already the second best Canadian to ever play Major League Baseball - behind Hall of Famer Larry Walker. He has won the MVP, been a six-time All Star and won a Gold Glove.
Votto has a ton of impressive statistics to his name; he led the league in walks 5 times, his career .937 OPB is 29th highest of all time and he has a very impressive 62.1 WAR.
But 2020 was not a good one for Joey Votto. His batting average dropped below .250 for the first time in his career, his average exit velocity was his lowest since the stat has been recorded in 2015 and he was pulling the ball more than he ever has in his career.
All this led to Votto being briefly benched by Manager David Bell for his performance last year. He did hit better after taking this time-out, but still had some struggles defensively and against left handed pitching.
Joey Votto will be 37 this season and while no-one expects him to hit at the MVP level of previous years, it will be very interesting to see if he can rebound. If Cincinnati are to be a challenger in the NL Central again, they'll need Votto to get back to being the Votto they know and love.
We think he does bounce back and predict a season where he hits .260 with 20 home runs and 30 doubles.
But will that be enough to help Cincinnati back into the postseason?
Prediction for 2021 - 4th in the NL Central
We think that there will be a number of positive stories coming out of Cincinnati this season - Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and Luis Castillo to name just a few.
But we suspect that they will miss the pitching performances of Trevor Bauer too much to seriously challenge for the NL Central.
They have some really good young talent in their system though, so the next couple of years could look much, much brighter for Cincinnati Reds fans.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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