2020 record - 34-26, 1st place in NL Central
Key Addition - Joc Pederson
Joc Pederson signed as a free agent after spending the last 7 years in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and he immediately fills the hole in leftfield after Kyle Schwarber moved on to the Nationals.
Pederson arrives with the Cubs with an impressive resume. He has played in the postseason each of the last six seasons and won the World Series with the Dodgers last year. Despite putting up career low batting average, on base percentage and walk percentage numbers, Pederson was a force to be reckoned with in the 2020 playoffs where he hit .382 with 2 home runs.
In acquiring Joc Pederson, they are getting a similar offensive player to Kyle Schwarber. Very similar, in fact. They both have an identical .230 career batting average, an identical .336 on base percentage and the exact same career average exit velocity of 92.1 mph.
There are some key differences between the two though. Pederson will strike out less and he is a much better defender, but Schwarber hits for a little more power.
The Cubs needed an outfielder to replace the free agent Schwarber, but we see this deal as more of a like-for-like swap rather than a major upgrade from their team in 2020.
We think that Pederson will hit around .235 with 30 home runs for the Cubs this season, which is very similar to what we think Schwarber will contribute to the Nationals.
Just missed out - Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies
Key Departure - Yu Darvish
The Yu Darvish trade with San Diego in December was, for us, a really strange decision for the Cubs to make. He had improved in each of his 3 seasons with the Cubs which culminated in a fantastic 2020 season where he finished with an ERA just above 2 and second place in the Cy Young voting.
Darvish's value had arguably never been higher than it was going into this offseason and we can't help but compare the return the Cubs received for Darvish with the return Tampa Bay got for Blake Snell.
Sure, Snell has a cheaper contract than Darvish but Darvish has unquestionably been the better of the two pitchers over the last two seasons. Since 2019, Yu Darvish has significantly better K/BB numbers, a much lower ERA and he has pitched nearly 100 more innings than Blake Snell.
So we can't quite understand why the Rays were able to get Luis Patino (the 19th overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline), Cole Wilcox (then San Diego's #7 prospect), Francisco Meija and Blake Hunt. Yet the Cubs could only get Zach Davies and 4 prospects who were all in the Padres' top 20 prospects but none were considered to be "top prospects".
We think that Zach Davies will have a nice season for the Cubs. The prospects they received are all very young and have significant potential, but it will likely be quite a few years before any of them are ready to make an impact at the big league level.
Was this a case of being a salary dump by the Cubs front office? We aren't sure. But if they had decided that they were going to trade their best pitcher, we would have hoped that they could have received a little more in return.
This move might look brilliant in 5 years time but in a division that looks very winnable right now, in our opinion, this trade makes them less likely to win it.
Notable rookie cards - None
There are no rookie Cubs representatives in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo has been outstanding for the Cubs at first base ever since he arrived from San Diego (in a trade which Chicago comfortably won) in 2012.
In Rizzo, the Cubs know exactly what they'll get going into a season - approximately 30 home runs, 30 doubles and around a .280 average.
In the small sample size of the 2020 season, Rizzo saw a marked decrease in his hard hit percentage. For the first time in his career, this fell below the Major League average to 34.9%. But we're happy to chalk this up to the small sample size and his ongoing battle with his back injury.
We expect that Rizzo will have a season like Cubs fans have come to expect from 3 time All Star. We think that a season where he hits .270 with 30 home runs and gold glove calibre defence are reasonable expectations for him in 2021.
Just missed out - Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
Player to watch for the future - Brennen Davis
Davis was a second round pick for the Cubs in the 2018 draft and he's currently their 2nd top prospect & 61st overall according to MLB Pipeline.
In his short professional career to date, Davis has impressed in the minor leagues and at the Cubs alternate training site last year.
Through two years at rookie and A ball, he put up some very good numbers despite suffering with multiple finger injuries. He's batting over .300 with 20 extra base hits in 68 games in the minors and his performances indicate that the Cubs found a gem in the second round of the 2018 draft.
It seems that teams were reluctant to use a first round pick on him because on injury concerns and questions about how well we could hit professionally. Whilst injuries are still something of a worry - although the finger injuries have been totally unrelated to the hamstring problems he dealt with in college - he has well and truly put to rest any worries about his bat.
Davis has above average power potential, above average speed and a decent glove too. So all things considered, we think that the Cubs got a real bargain here. If teams could redo the 2018 draft, we are sure that Davis would go in the first round.
It will still likely be a couple of years before fans will get to see him at Wrigley Field, but we'll be watching closely to see how he adapts to the better pitching in the higher minor league levels this year. We predict that Davis starts this season at AA Tennessee and has a chance at making his big league debut around the All Star break of 2022.
Just missed out - Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez
Storyline to keep an eye on - Will the Cubs extend their upcoming free agents?
Things are changing in the North Side of Chicago. Very little remains of their 2017 World Series winning team, including GM Theo Epstein, but of those that do remain many are in the last year of their contract.
Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant & Willson Contreras are all in the last year of their contracts, so the Cubs have some decisions to make.
After trading away their ace - Yu Darvish - and trade rumours circulating all winter around the names above, Cubs fans could be excused for thinking that a re-build is underway. Their new President Jed Hoyer insists the team will still be competitive despite their desire to reduce their spending. And we're inclined to agree.
With the exception of the Cardinals, the other teams in the NL Central haven't done much to improve their teams this offseason. We think that the Cubs will be competitive in the NL Central this season but that will make their decisions regarding their upcoming free agents even harder.
It appears to be a decision with no right answer; either they trade away their star players whilst being competitive and anger their fanbase, or they keep them and risk them leaving as free agents next winter.
We expect that the Cubs will be in a lot of trade rumours as the trading deadline draws nearer and it'll be really interesting to see what they do - or don't - do.
Prediction for 2021 - 2nd in the NL Central
We see the NL Central as having three tiers. The division favourites, the middle ground with teams likely a few games above .500 and the bottom dwellers. We see the Cubs in the middle ground. We don't think that they'll be a serious threat to win the division but they might be in with a shout of being a wild card team.
Of course, a lot depends on any moves they make. But as things stand right now, we think that the Cubs finish a few games over .500 which will just be good enough for a second place finish.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
Comments