2020 record - 35-25, 1st place in NL East
Key Addition - Charlie Morton
Morton is an excellent signing for the Braves who add another really good arm to their rotation. Last season, ace Max Fried came 5th in Cy Young voting and received MVP votes too. Ian Anderson had an outstanding rookie year - more on him in a minute. And Kyle Wright showed some moments of promise; particularly his penultimate start of the seasons at Citi Field.
But after Mike Soroka succumbed to an Achilles injury in early August, the rest of the rotation struggled somewhat. In fact, Braves pitchers who started at least once last season that are not named Fried, Anderson, Wright or Soroka had a combined ERA of 7.31.
Charlie Morton gives Atlanta an immediate strengthening of their pitching rotation, which will be even more impressive as Soroka slowly transitions back after injury. Morton has been one of the best arms in the game over recent years, culminating in an outstanding 2019 when he came 3rd in the AL Cy Young vote and finished with a 4.9 WAR.
We think that Morton will win 14 games this year, pitch to an ERA around 3.50 and become a firm favourite with Braves fans.
Just missed out - Marcell Ozuna, Drew Smyly
Key Departure - Mark Melancon
Melancon has been the closer in Atlanta pretty much since he came over in a trade from San Francisco at the trade deadline in 2019. He was excellent last year, saving 11 games with an ERA of 2.78. However, despite the shortened season making comparisons difficult, Melancon did see a significant drop in his strikeout numbers in 2020 from previous years.
Melancon signed with the Padres as a free agent and likely fits into the back end of their bullpen.
The departure of Melancon, Darren O'Day and potentially Shane Greene leave the Braves bullpen looking a little light compared to last season. They have added Nate Jones as a non-roster invitee but we think that Atlanta will acquire at least one more bullpen arm before Opening Day to shore up their relief pitching.
Notable rookie cards - Christian Pache, Ian Anderson
The Braves have 2 representatives in the rookie class of Topps 2021 Series 1.
Christian Pache is the top Braves prospect and #12 overall according to MLB Pipeline. The exciting young outfielder made a very brief Major League debut in 2020, where he appeared in just 2 regular season games. But it was in the postseason when he played most for the Braves in 2020 - he played in every game of the NLCS against the Dodgers.
Pache has a reputation of being an outstanding fielder and his hitting really improved at AA Mississippi in 2019 where he hit 47 extra base hits in 104 games. The fact that the Braves look ready to move the defensively excellent Ronald Acuna Jr. to rightfield to make room for him speaks volumes to how well he patrols centerfield.
We think that he starts the year as the starting centerfielder for Atlanta and that he hits .260 with just shy of 20 home runs in 2021.
Ian Anderson was the 3rd overall pick in the 2016 draft and is ranked the #18 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. It seems unfair to him to call him a prospect though, seeing has how he started 10 games (including the playoffs) for Atlanta last year.
To say that Anderson made a fantastic first impressions would be doing him a disservice. He pitched 32.1 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and a 1.3 WAR in the 2020 regular season. But, if anything, he was even better in the postseason. In his 4 postseason starts, he pitched 18.2 innings with an ERA of 0.96 and a 11.6 K/9. Those are simply outstanding numbers, let alone for someone in their debut season.
Anderson will comfortably have a place towards the top of the Braves rotation on Opening Day and we think that he finishes 2021 with an ERA around 3.60 and approximately 13 wins.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ever since he made his debut back in 2018, Ronald Acuna Jr has been a star. He already has a Rookie of the Year award, 2 Silver Sluggers, an All Star appearance and a top 5 position in an MVP race. There are many really, really good hitters who don't earn those accolades in their career and Acuna already has within his first three.
Let's look at his career stats for a minute. In 2019, he came just 3 stolen bases short of joining Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano as members of the 40-40 club. Averaged over 162 games, he hits 42 home runs, 31 doubles and 100 RBI. He already has a career WAR north of 12.
He has just been incredible and we expect that his meteoric rise continues in 2021. We predict that he leads the Braves in home runs and stolen bases; finishing the year with a .280 average, 40 home runs and 35 stolen bases.
Just missed out - Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
Player to watch for the future - Drew Waters
Had we not talked about him early, we probably would have been very tempted to put Christian Pache here. But Drew Waters is another excellent option.
The second round pick in 2017 is Atlanta's 3rd top prospect and 35th overall. The outfielder had a superb 2019 season between AA and AAA where he had 56 extra base hits and a .309 average. Without doubt, we think that he his ready for a promotion to the Major Leagues.
But the problem is that the Braves don't really have anywhere to put him. If the National League returns to not using the DH, the Atlanta outfield looks set to consist of Ozuna, Pache and Acuna Jr. Having the Designated Hitter would allow the Braves to have Ozuna hit and someone like Waters to take to the field. That doesn't look likely to happen in 2021 though.
We still think that Waters makes his MLB debut in 2021, but the Braves would likely prefer to give him regular at bats at AAA rather than use him as a 4th outfielder in the Majors.
Storyline to keep an eye on - Can Ozzie Albies bounce back and can the young Pache & Austin Riley emerge as breakout stars?
Atlanta looks on the verge of creating a dynasty similar to Braves teams of old. They have the reigning MVP in Freddie Freeman and 5 of their players received MVP votes in 2020. They've got all the young players we talked about above too.
Atlanta has one of the most exciting young teams in league and after winning the NL East for the last 2 years, now will be the time that they look to push on and win a World Series.
But that'll be a lot easier said than done, with Los Angeles, San Diego and others in their way. The big spending Mets shouldn't be overlooked either and they appear to be much better placed to mount a challenge this year.
If the Braves are to win the NL East again and reach the World Series for the first time since 1999, they'll need Albies to have a bounce back year and their rookies to show that they belong on the big stage over a full 162 slate of games.
We think that they will and so we predict that the Braves will...
Prediction for 2021 - 1st in the NL East
We think that Acuna Jr., Freeman, Ozuna and Fried will all have excellent seasons which will see them win the NL East again. For us, the biggest question is whether they can top the monster Dodger and Padre teams which block their path to the World Series.
We'll give our postseason predictions on Opening Day, but if their young core can perform as we expect they will and with Charlie Morton added to their rotation & bringing back free agent Marcell Ozuna, they've got a good a chance as any to fight for the NL in the World Series.
Either way, the Braves will be an exciting team to watch this season. And for many more to come.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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