2020 record - 25-35, 5th place in NL West
Key Addition - Joakim Soria
The Diamondbacks have been without a true closing pitcher since traded Archie Bradley at the trading deadline last year. Stefan Crichton did well in the closer role after Bradley's departure where he improved on his already excellent numbers from 2019.
In 2020, Crichton pitched 26 innings with a 2.42 ERA, collected 5 saves and did an outstanding job at limiting the home runs hit off him. If those numbers aren't impressive enough, once he assumed the closer position he fared even better when he pitched to a 0.96 ERA.
But as is often the case, there is another story that exists below the surface of the headline statistics. His batting average against, slugging percentage, strikeout percentage and WHIP all were worse last year than they were in 2019.
So there is an argument to be made that Crichton was somewhat lucky that he didn't give up more runs than he did, especially since his 0.9% home run rate seems unsustainable over a full 162 game season.
So the Diamondbacks were in need of relief pitchers and they picked up a few of them. Chris Devenski, Tyler Clippard and Ryan Buchter all signed in Arizona as free agents.
But it is Joakim Soria who appears likely to have the biggest impact for them this season and he is the strong favourite to begin the year as the closer in Arizona.
Soria is a well established Major League veteran with a career ERA a shade over 3 and he will provide excellent mentorship for their other bullpen arms as well as put up decent numbers himself.
We think that Soria finishes this season with around 25 saves and an ERA just below 4.
Just missed out - Asdrubal Cabrera
Key Departure - Junior Guerra
Along with Archie Bradley, Guerra is another subtraction from their 2020 bullpen which necessitated the signings of the players we named above.
Guerra pitched in 25 games last season for the Diamondbacks; the second highest among their pitchers. And he pitched really well in those 25 games with a 3.04 ERA, 8 K/9 and held opposing batters to a .205 average.
Guerra signed a minor league deal with the Angels and we think he makes their bullpen on Opening Day.
It has been a very quiet winter for the Diamondbacks - they haven't made a single trade and other than the relief pitchers we've already talked about and the versatile Asdrubal Cabrera, and they haven't made a big splash in free agency. But that said, they haven't lost many names of note either.
Notable rookie cards - Daulton Varsho, Humberto Mejia
The Diamondbacks have two rookie representative in the 2021 Topps Series 1 set.
Dauton Varsho was considered to be one of the top catching prospects going into last season but he struggled somewhat in 2020 where he hit just .188 with 10 extra base hits in 37 games.
But there is a lot to like about Varsho. Firstly, he was a highly regarded prospect for a reason. His .301 batting average in the minor league attest to that. And secondly, he is something of a rare breed in that he can play as both a catcher and in the outfield. This positional versatility and his speed only increase his chances of remaining in the Major Leagues for a long time.
We think that Varsho gets the majority of his playing time in the outfield this season but he will still play behind the plate on occasions too.
Varsho is starting the season in the minor leagues after a somewhat lacklustre showing at spring training. We think that he'll be back playing in Arizona around or before the All Star break.
Humberto Mejia started 3 games and pitched 10 innings for Arizona in 2020 after joining the team as part of the Starling Marte trade with Miami. In this extremely small sample size, Mejia had a 5.40 ERA and .310 batting average against which isn't great but a lot of that was down to giving up home runs which he did 6.1% of the time. If he can get that number down, then we think he can be a solid Major League starter for the Diamondbacks.
He has played really well in the minor leagues; limiting opponents to only 17 home runs with a 2.40 ERA in 277.1 innings. If he can produce this kind of form in Arizona, then Diamondbacks fans will be very happy.
We think that Mejia starts the season at AAA Reno and is one of the first names to be called up when needed.
Predicted 2021 Team MVP - Ketel Marte
For us, this was a coin flip decision between Marte and Zac Gallen [Edit - the below was written before Gallen was diagnosed with a hairline fracture to his forearm. Hopefully he can get back on the mound soon because he has been excellent for Arizona so far.]
Gallen has been as outstanding as he has consistent in his two Major League seasons to date. His ERA has been consistently around 2.75, his K/9 is always over 10 and the exit velocity on balls in play hovers around 87mph.
He received Cy Young votes in his 2nd big league season last year and finished 2020 with a 1.000 fielding percentage.
We think Gallen has another excellent year and emerges as the true ace of the Diamondbacks rotation. A season where he pitches 160 innings with a 3.60 ERA seem like decent targets for him.
But we decided to go with the everyday player over the pitcher for who we think will be the MVP in Arizona this year.
Ketel Marte had a very solid season last year, but his numbers weren't quite at the level they were in 2019 when he earned his first All Star appearance and came 4th in the NL MVP voting.
Again with the caveat that the shortened 2020 season is a small sample size, Marte's home run and walk percentages were down. But the really positive aspect was how he significantly reduced his strike out percentage to a career low.
We think that in a full 162 game season in 2021, Marte will get back on track and put up some really good numbers again. Maybe not quite as good as they were in 2019, but still really good nonetheless.
We predict that he flirts with hitting .300 this season and finishes with 25 home runs and possibly another All Star appearance.
Player to watch for the future - Corbin Carroll
Carroll was Arizona's first round pick in the 2019 draft and he is their top prospect & 47th overall according to MLB Pipeline.
He played 42 minor league games in 2019 before the 2020 season was cancelled, but he really impressed in those 42 games and was quickly promoted from rookie ball to short season A ball after only 31 games.
He reportedly impressed even further at Arizona's alternative training camp last year against opposing players who are much more accomplished pitchers than he had faced before.
Carroll likely projects as more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, not that he won't hit his fair share of home runs though. But it his outstanding speed that sets him apart. He stole 18 bases in those 42 minor league games and when you combine this speed with his hitting ability, it makes for an exciting combination.
We think that Carroll starts the season at A Visalia but we wouldn't be surprised if his rise up the minor leagues is a rapid one. He could get his first taste of AAA by the end of this season and possibly make his big league debut after the All Star game next year.
Just missed out - Alek Thomas, Kristian Robinson
Storyline to keep an eye on - Can some key Diamondbacks rebound after an off year last season?
There were a number of players who didn't perform as expected for Arizona last year and for them to have any chance of being legitimate contenders in the stacked NL West, they need for them to have bounce back years this season.
Madison Bumgarner had probably the worst season of his career in 2020. His ERA, home run percentage and strike out percentage were all career worst levels for him last year. The 31 year old signed a big 5 year $85m contact with Arizona at the start of last year and he'll need to improve on his 2020 performance if he's to be worth the money. Moving his WAR from the negative into the positive would be a good start.
Carson Kelly had a really impressive debut in Phoenix after coming over in a trade with the Cardinals. In 2019, Kelly hit .245 with almost 40 extra base hits out of the catcher position which is outstanding, especially for someone who was 24 at the time. But he regressed and was yet another Diamondback who put up a negative WAR last year.
Ketel Marte's 2020 wasn't as good as his excellent 2019 season - as we mentioned above - but we think he is probably best positioned to bounce back.
Lastly for now, but we could go on, is Eduardo Escobar. He hit just .212 with 4 home runs and -0.5 WAR in 2020 and is slated to be towards the heart of the Diamondbacks line-up this season. He hit 35 home runs with a .269 average in 2019 and Arizona will need him to put up similar numbers if they want to compete in the NL West.
All in all, 24 of the 45 players who played for the Diamondbacks in 2020 had a zero or negative WAR. That's more than half of them, which is just crazy.
We don't think that those numbers will repeat to the same level this year, but will they improve enough for Arizona to compete against LA or San Diego?
Prediction for 2021 - 4th in the NL West
We can't see so many Diamondbacks under-performing in 2021 as they did last year. But we also can't see them improving enough to stand much chance against the aggressive Dodger or Padre teams in their division.
We think that there will be an interesting battle for 3rd place in the NL West between the D'Backs and the Giants, which we think has a pretty good chance of ending in a tie.
Arizona just need so many things to go right in 2021 for them to be competitive. Maybe a few of them happen - like Ketel Marte and Madison Bumgarner rebounding - but not all of them. That they have already lost their best pitcher to injury doesn't bode well for them.
All of this means that a season where they finish just below .500 is looking most likely to us.
Do you agree with our predictions? Or have we got them horribly wrong?
Let us know in the comments or on twitter.
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